AITOUZI / MACRO LIQUIDITY
Macro liquidity: rates, credit and the dollar
Macro liquidity describes financing conditions, not daily money entering equities. AiTouzi converts eight measures into historical percentiles and combines them by weight. Easier conditions can reduce financing pressure, while earnings cuts, high valuations or credit shocks can still hurt stocks.
Current platform methodology
Fed assets, NFCI and high-yield spreads each carry 20%; 2-year yields, real yields and the dollar each 10%; 10- and 30-year yields each 5%. A state requires at least 75% available weight. Fed assets use a 13-week change rather than the long-run balance-sheet level.
Agreement is not proof of causality
A negative NFCI indicates conditions looser than the historical average. Falling yields can reflect easing inflation or recession fears; compare credit spreads and earnings. Series update at different frequencies, so a composite date cannot replace individual observation dates.
Reading checklist
| What to check | How to interpret it |
|---|---|
| Level | Current financing conditions, not a forecast return. |
| Change | Improvement over a month can coexist with tight conditions. |
| Historical association | Check sample size and window; median returns are not promises. |
Limits & counterexamples
This is AiTouzi's research methodology, not an official central-bank composite. Samples may overlap and data may be revised. Associations are not causation; leveraged products also face daily rebalancing effects.
Sources & verification
For research and education only, not a securities recommendation or personalized investment advice. Historical results do not predict future performance.